Global Macro Forecasts and Trading Flow

LSEG Trading Flow data reveals who is driving market activity by converting nanosecond order book data into real-time supply and demand signals.  In comparison, the focus of LSEG Global Macro Forecasts is on providing forward-looking economic projections beyond consensus views to offer earlier, more accurate insights.

Trading Flow data is derived from analysing signals embedded in market activity, using advanced analytics and market expertise to infer participant behaviour without relying on disclosed trading identities.

LSEG applies model-driven classification techniques based on execution patterns, trade characteristics, and market behaviour to distinguish between institutional and retail activity at scale.

Validation is conducted using external benchmarks and statistical testing, including comparisons with regulatory datasets such as 13F filings to assess the consistency and predictive quality of institutional signals.

Traditional metrics show how much is traded. Trading Flow data highlights who is trading and with what intent, offering deeper insight into market dynamics and positioning.

Trading Flow coverage spans global equities, ETFs, and futures, focusing on the most actively traded instruments across major regions and sectors. It can be applied across short-, medium, and longer-term horizons, providing insight into near-term momentum as well as more persistent trends.

Trading Flow signals can exhibit predictive characteristics for future returns, particularly when analysing institutional behaviour, making them suitable for both quantitative and discretionary strategies.

Forecasts are built using real-time economic indicators and historical data combined within systematic models designed to adapt as conditions change. Our cutting-edge methodology leverages our broader textual and market data sets including tick history.

LSEG’s forecasts are systematic and continuously updated with new data using advanced statistical modelling and machine learning, enabling faster identification of shifts in macroeconomic conditions. Consensus forecasts, in contrast, are provided by economists based on data from a specific time frame.

Forecasts cover key releases including inflation (CPI), employment data, personal consumption expenditure, retail sales, and other indicators that provide a gauge of economic momentum and sentiment.

Using historical data, we find that LSEG’s bottom-up, component-level approach consistently outperforms consensus estimates across headline and Core CPI measures. LSEG’s Global Macro Forecasts achieve higher directional accuracy and hit rates while maintaining lower forecast errors across multiple evaluation windows. The performance advantage persists over time and is not driven by isolated periods or specific inflation regimes.

Global Macro Forecasts provide access to proprietary insights via a REST API and visualisation tools that support front office active risk takers to middle office risk management functions.