India’s new NDC – the final piece in the 2035 climate targets puzzle

On 24th April 2026, India submitted the country’s new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) covering the 2031-2035 period to the UN. This is a critical milestone for the NDC 3.0 process – the latest round of new climate targets for 2035 set by countries as part of the Paris Agreement.

Although India’s per capita emissions are low – roughly a third of the EU’s and a quarter of China’s – due to its size and rapid economic growth. Based on current projections, India is expected to be the largest contributor to global emissions growth over the 2025-2035 period (China accounted for the largest absolute emissions in the previous four decades, and the USSR the decade before that). 

This makes India’s emission target key to global trajectories and to the credibility of the overall NDCs 3.0, or the ‘pledge-and-review’ process that is central to the Paris Agreement.  

In our view, India's delayed submission now largely completes the first stage of NDCs 3.0 process that will frame global climate diplomacy over the next decade. New 2035 targets have now been set by 135 countries, covering over two thirds of global GDP and three quarters of emissions. [note1] This includes all G20 countries, except for the United States, which has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, and Argentina.

These new 2035 targets matter to investors, as they shape national economic trajectories throughout the 2030s and influence both the transition and physical risks companies will encounter in the decades ahead (see our detailed analysis in our COP30 Net Zero Atlas published in November 2025). 

Using LSEG’s Implied Temperature Projections, we estimate that the G20’s combined new 2035 targets could align with approximatively a 2.1°C scenario pathway, compared to 2.4°C for the NDC 2.0 targets. [note2]

Our modelling shows that India’s new 2035 emissions target sits well above current policy projections and does not imply an emissions peak before 2035. This indicates that under current plans, India’s emissions are likely to continue to grow into the mid-2030s at least.

Figure 1. India’s historical emissions from 1990 to 2023 (MtCO2e), shown with projected emissions Implied by its 2030 and 2035 targets. A full explanation of the ambition scenarios can be found in LSEG’s COP29 Net Zero Atlas.

This reflects a cautious approach to climate commitments, prioritising economic growth, industrialisation and energy access, while preserving headroom for future ambition as technology costs fall and international climate negotiations evolve.

Unlike absolute emissions reduction targets announced by most other G20 economies, India’s updated 2035 NDC 3.0 serves as an intensity target and structural indicators rather than an explicit economy-wide emissions cap. It closely mirrors the structure of India’s previous NDC submission from 2022 specifically:

• Reducing the emissions intensity by 47% per unit of GDP by 2035 compared with 2005 levels compared to a 45% target for 2030. [note3]  [note4]
• A target of 60% of installed electricity capacity to come from non‑fossil sources by 2035, compared to its previous 50% target for 2030 which India is on track to meet or exceed under current policies. 
• A commitment to create additional carbon sink of 3.5-4.0 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2035, up from 2.5-3 billion by 2030. 

Using our Implied Temperature Rise (ITR) framework, we estimate that India’s new 2035 NDC corresponds to a 1.7°C temperature outcome (compared to 1.6°C under its previous, 2030 NDC 2.0) reflecting the country’s relatively low per‑capita emissions and long‑dated 2070 net‑zero target, despite continued growth in absolute emissions over the next decade.