COP30 Net Zero Atlas

95% of countries missed the UN’s February deadline for submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs 3.0). Yet recent announcements by key emitters mean 15 G20 economies – covering 71% of G20 emissions – now have 2035 targets.

LSEG’s analysis shows these 2035 targets materially accelerate post-2030 emission cuts: annual reductions for G20 countries with targets rise to -2.6 to -3.5% between 2030-35 (from -0.5 to -0.7% between 2023-30 under NDCs 2.0), implying an additional 13-18% over five years versus 2030 targets.

For companies and investors, this means higher transition risk – as governments accelerate the shift to low-carbon economies – alongside growing physical risk.

The fifth edition of LSEG’s Net Zero Atlas provides investors with a wealth of data and insights on transition and physical risks to which G20 countries are exposed. 

• Policy momentum: Despite geopolitical tensions, over 70 countries have now submitted or announced new 2035 targets. This includes major emitters such as China, Russia, Brazil, and the EU, with the US withdrawing from the process. India is the only top 5 emitter still to detail its updated emission trajectory[Note1]. 
• Temperature Alignment: The new 2035 targets are broadly consistent with a straight-line trajectory from 2030 targets to countries’ long-term commitments. Collectively, G20 commitments for 2035 align with a projected temperature increase of 2.2–2.3°C (vs 2.4°C under NDCs 2.0) – still significantly short of the Paris goals.
• Accelerated cuts: Faster global emission reductions are mainly driven by peaking emissions in large emerging economies including China and Türkiye.  Among the G20 countries where they have already peaked, the 2035 pledges imply faster decarbonisation in some cases (like the UK and Australia) offset by decelerating cuts in others (e.g. Canada and Japan).

• Across these eight economies, we estimate that physical climate hazards could place an additional half billion people and US$20 trillion in GDP at high risk by mid-century, putting 839 million people and US$28.3 trillion at risk in 2050.
• Cyclones: High-risk exposure will expand to major cities including Tokyo, New York, and Shanghai. In Japan >80% of GDP and population will face a Category 1 or higher typhoon on average at least once a decade, up from <5% today. 
• Heatwaves & water stress: Over 327 million people globally will face extreme heat (>35°C for 30+ days/year) by 2050 – including Los Angeles, Houston, Shanghai, and Hong Kong – up from just under 10 million today, with 670 regions also projected to experience high water stress, compounding risks to health and economic productivity.
• Flooding: Across the 8 countries, the UK is the most exposed by share of GDP and population. The Thames Estuary could face $100 billion in GDP at risk, with national exposure rising to 9.7% of GDP by 2050.
• Wildfires: Wildfire risk will intensify across the globe, with 16.4 million more people exposed. In California alone, some 9.5 million people are projected to be at risk.

• Integration of Implied Temperature Rise (ITR) Metrics: This work uniquely applies country-level ITR scores to assess the ambition of national climate targets. By translating emissions trajectories into temperature outcomes, it offers a clear, comparable benchmark for evaluating how aligned each country is with the Paris Agreement goals.
• Forward-looking analysis of NDC 3.0 pledges: The analysis provides a detailed assessment of the third generation of NDCs for 2035. It evaluates their implications for global emissions pathways, transition risk, and decarbonisation speed, making it highly relevant for investors and policymakers ahead of COP30.
• Granular country-level emissions trajectory comparisons: The Atlas includes detailed breakdowns of projected annual emissions changes across G20 countries, comparing historical trends, current policies, and future commitments. This allows for insights into which countries are accelerating or decelerating their climate efforts, and how these shifts affect global climate cooperation and risk exposure.

This report provides investors with a wealth of data and insights into the transition and physical risks to which G20 countries are exposed. 

It is critical that investors understand how governments are developing emissions-reduction commitments and how these commitments are reshaping growth trajectories and asset valuations around the world. 

Institutional investors increasingly recognise the challenge that physical climate risk is beginning to pose to markets and economies. What remains less clear is where, and at what scale, these risks will materialise.

This report provides granular, hazard-specific mapping and projections with detailed socio-economic data, which helps translate broad climate models into actionable investment decisions.

• COP29 Net Zero Atlas
• COP28 Net Zero Atlas
• COP27 Net Zero Atlas
• COP26 Net Zero Atlas