Kieran Brophy
Edmund Bourne
Jaakko Kooroshy
Alan Meng
Weather-related disasters accounted for 98% of insured losses in the first half of 2025, already surpassing the highest annual total since records began. Events like the Los Angeles wildfires and deadly monsoon floods in Pakistan illustrate the growing economic and human toll.
Now in its fifth year, the physical risk chapter of our COP30 Net Zero Atlas assesses how physical climate risk is projected to evolve at the sub-national level across eight G20 economies, combining hazard-specific projections with detailed local GDP and population data.
We assess exposure to key climate hazards – cyclones [Note1], flooding, heatwaves, water stress, and wildfires – across 4,416 regions in the US, China, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, and Türkiye.
Key findings from our physical climate risk analysis
- Across these eight economies, we estimate that physical climate hazards could place an additional half billion people and US$20 trillion in GDP at high risk by mid-century, putting 839 million people and US$28.3 trillion at risk in 2050.
- Cyclones: High-risk exposure will expand to major cities including Tokyo, New York, and Shanghai. In Japan >80% of GDP and population will face a Category 1 or higher typhoon on average at least once a decade, up from <5% today.
- Heatwaves & water stress: Over 327 million people globally will face extreme heat (>35°C for 30+ days/year) by 2050 – including Los Angeles, Houston, Shanghai, and Hong Kong – up from just under 10 million today, with 670 regions also projected to experience high water stress, compounding risks to health and economic productivity.
- Flooding: Across the 8 countries, the UK is the most exposed by share of GDP and population. The Thames Estuary could face $100 billion in GDP at risk, with national exposure rising to 9.7% of GDP by 2050.
- Wildfires: Wildfire risk will intensify across the globe, with 16.4 million more people exposed. In California alone, some 9.5 million people are projected to be at risk.
What’s next
This chapter is the first installment of the COP30 Net Zero Atlas.
The full Atlas – covering both transition and physical risks – will be published in the coming weeks ahead of COP30.
Points of differentiation
- Granular regional focus: Unlike many climate risk reports that assess exposure at the national level, the COP30 Net Zero Atlas maps physical climate risk across sub-national regions, pinpointing exposure through granular, hazard-specific mapping.
- Integrating socio-economic modelling: The Atlas combines hazard projections from Sust Global with sub-national economic and demographic datasets, to directly link exposure to GDP and population.
- Cross-country comparability: We provide consistent, multi-hazard analysis across countries, giving investors a spatially detailed, comparable view of physical climate risk.
What does our research mean for you?
Our COP30 Net Zero Atlas provides investors with a wealth of data and insights on the physical risks of regions which together account for approximately 60% of the global economy (in terms of GDP).
Institutional investors increasingly recognise the challenge that physical climate risk is beginning to pose to markets and economies. What remains less clear is where, and at what scale, these risks will materialise.
This report provides granular, hazard-specific mapping and projections with detailed socio-economic data, which helps translate broad climate models into actionable investment decisions.
Previous reports in the Net Zero Atlas series:
FOOTNOTE
[1] We use ‘cyclones’ in our description of climate hazards, also known as hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean and typhoons in the Pacific northwest Back to Note 1
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