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Dispersion across major countries

Indrani De

Global Head of Investment Research • Research & Analysis

Since the Covid shock and subsequent economic recovery, there have been key changes to the macroeconomic backdrop that continue to reverberate through financial markets.

The supply chain disruption (and the major fiscal stimulus in countries like the US) led to an inflation spike. The subsequent monetary tightening has led to major economies being at different points in the business cycle.

For example, developed markets had high inflation that is sharply down yet remains above target, emerging markets like Brazil and Mexico were ahead of the US Fed on the inflation-fighting path, Japan is finally getting the inflation it has worked towards for years, but deflation risks are on the rise in China.

There are also significant structural changes in major economies, including the onshoring/nearshoring trend, the large fiscal policy-led investment boom in the US, the shift in China from investment-led to consumption-based GDP growth and improved labour force dynamics and corporate governance in Japan.

This juxtaposition of business cycle dynamics and structural changes is leading to a lot of dispersion across major countries. The dispersion is a new and important part of the investing landscape that gives rise to investment opportunities but also requires greater selectivity in asset allocation.

In addition, interest rates have risen fast in the last eighteen months and fixed income is now a competitive asset class in investment portfolios for the first time in many years. A higher risk-free (discounting) rate impacts the outlook for every other asset class, as well as the risk premia demanded by investors for taking on duration risk, credit risk, uncertainty risk and illiquidity risk.

In summary, we are in an interesting time where asset allocation is challenging, dynamic and very different from that during the Great Financial Crisis to Covid period (2008 – 2021).

Partnering with clients

As a leading global index provider, with indices spanning multiple asset classes, FTSE Russell is well-positioned to partner with clients across the investment ecosystem, helping them navigate these market opportunities and challenges.

Indices are a representation of the market and offer probably the most efficient way to understand it. Analysing different asset classes across geographies with indices from the same family, constructed with a comparable methodology and consistent governance, enables better apple-to-apple comparisons and better investment decision-making.

This gives an edge to a multi-asset index provider like FTSE Russell and helps us build more effective partnerships with our clients. This applies whether you are an active investor (looking for a benchmark to measure portfolio alpha and active risk) or a passive investor.

It applies for asset owners and wealth advisors looking at portfolio construction and asset allocation, and for asset managers choosing the right index for creation of investment products like ETFs and mutual funds.

The FTSE Russell Global Investment Research team helps our clients gain better insights about the macroeconomic environment, financial markets and cross-asset-class dynamics. By doing this, we help them reach their investment goals.

The FTSE Russell Global Investment Research team helps our clients gain better insights about the macroeconomic environment, financial markets and cross-asset-class dynamics.

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