Robin Marshall, MA, MPhil
Head of FICC Research
Monthly report
Indian yields fall despite rupee weakness
Key highlights:
- Indian and Malaysian policy stability as policy diverges elsewhere. Resignation of Indonesian central bank Governor increases policy uncertainty.
- Bifurcation between high and low yield groups continues. India outperforms amongst high yielders.
- All markets show yields below 2026 highs, with Indian 10-year yields 30 bp lower on 3M, helped by RBI measures. India now trades through Indonesia and Philippines. Malaysia remains a safe haven.
- Spotlight on Malaysia – stable inflation, near 2%, external surpluses and Malaysia’s net energy exporter status insulate the economy from the recent energy shock, and keeping yields stable.
- Globally, most markets fell modestly on higher oil prices in July, though Indian govt bonds (IGB) have gained 2-3% on 3M, helped by RBI measures.
- Fears of higher debt issuance and inflation weighed on long JGBs, KTBs, Thai, Philippine and Indonesian govt bonds.
Published monthly by FTSE Russell FICC Research, this report:
- Covers key developments in government bond markets across India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand
- Assesses macroeconomic and policy developments in each country and globally, and their implications for local bond markets
- Includes analysis of yield curve movements and spreads
- Presents performance returns and yield movements using FTSE Russell index data and Lipper fund flow data
- Features a rotating monthly spotlight on one of the five economies
