Robin Marshall, MA, MPhil
Head of FICC Research
Monthly report
Prospects of less severe oil shock helps some yields fall
Key highlights:
- EM Asia (exc.China) govt bonds enjoyed relief rallies in June, with lower energy prices the key driver, and India and the Philippines best performers…
- … but Indonesia missed the rally, as uncertainty persists over the policy rate outlook there, after the May rate increase.
- Stability of the rupiah appears to be an implicit central bank objective, given Indonesian rupiah debt has a higher share of foreign ownership than most of the peer group.
- Higher oil supply and demand elasticities suggest fears of a 1970s-style oil shock and major stagflation are exaggerated.
- New RBI measures may have helped Indian yields to decline, with strong support at 7% yields.
Published monthly by FTSE Russell FICC Research, this report:
- Covers key developments in government bond markets across India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand
- Assesses macroeconomic and policy developments in each country and globally, and their implications for local bond markets
- Includes analysis of yield curve movements and spreads
- Presents performance returns and yield movements using FTSE Russell index data and Lipper fund flow data
- Features a rotating monthly spotlight on one of the five economies
