IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings: Six important themes

In April 2025, LSEG and Eurasia Group hosted a high-level roundtable discussion as part of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings.

Conducted under the Chatham House Rule, the discussion focused on the significant restructuring of global trade relationships.

1. Economic policy is now security policy and businesses must treat it as such.
2. The old globalisation playbooks no longer apply. Governments and firms must adapt to more fragmented, politicised markets.
3. Credibility of data, institutions and commitments is a critical asset in a world where trust is fraying and alliances shift.

Overall, participants concluded that the disruptions to trade aren’t temporary, but a fundamental reshaping of the global economic order – one that demands a new kind of strategic realism. 

1. A fundamental shift is happening in US trade policy
   • The current US administration wants domestic production to shift the US economy towards a more manufacturing-based model. Despite historical examples where import-substitution failed, participants said the American economy is unique, and its market attractiveness and scale could yield different outcomes.
   • Economic security is key, and there’s bipartisan recognition that overreliance on foreign suppliers creates vulnerabilities, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding.  Investment and export controls are becoming core policy tools to address these concerns.
2. Policy uncertainty has an economic impact
   • Uncertainty around trade rules, tariffs and industrial policy is prompting some companies to delay long-term investment. This cautious stance is contributing to slower momentum in some sectors of the economy, particularly those directly affected by policy shifts intended to drive structural change.
   • At the same time, activity is heating up among opportunistic investors, especially those in private equity who are viewing the current environment as a buying opportunity. These investors are positioning themselves to capitalise on emerging shifts, signalling that while some are pausing, others are leaning in.
3. Strategic imperatives are changing in a data-driven world
   • Data-driven scenario planning is replacing prediction models as businesses look for insights they can put into action to navigate prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in trade restructuring and investment strategy.
   • Integrated geopolitical analysis and data are no longer optional or crisis-only tools. Data must be integrated into decision-making from day one, especially as developed markets face structural changes historically familiar only to emerging markets.
4. Uncertainty around the US’s global policy role continues
   • Long-time allies, including Canada, the EU and Australia, are experiencing new tariffs despite strong ties, leading to a loss of trust in the US that could take decades to rebuild.
   • Some international partners are voicing reserve currency concerns and questioning the long-term dominance of the US dollar. Alternative safe havens remain limited, however, and there is no clear alternative to take the role of a global reserve currency.
5. Ripple effects and responses felt around the world
   • Broader European industries, particularly German automakers, are vulnerable to the potential threat of Chinese goods redirected from the US to avoid tariffs and slower economic growth.
   • Trade strategies have expanded across Asia: Japan and South Korea have swiftly engaged with US trade policies, while ASEAN nations seek to balance relations with both the US and China.
   • In response to rising geopolitical and trade tensions, Canada is working to reduce its overdependence on US trade. This includes efforts to strengthen domestic East-West infrastructure and expand LNG export capacity to Europe and Asia; moves aimed at diversifying trade flows beyond traditional North-South linkages.
   • India is strategically repositioning and using its non-aligned stance to capitalise on shifting global dynamics amid US-China tensions. Through supply chain initiatives, diplomatic engagement and economic reforms, India is seeking to position itself as a long-term alternative in the emerging multipolar landscape.
6. The structure of the global economic order is changing
   • Government intervention in the economy is normalising as states reimagine their roles in market economies, driving policies around national champions and resilience.
   • New trade architecture is forming, with future trade agreements expected to integrate economic security as a central element, requiring new norms and frameworks.

For businesses:

• Business may have to undergo supply chain restructuring, prioritising resilience and redundancy over cost-efficiency diversifying sources and reconsidering their global footprints.
• Announcements about US manufacturing investments may outpace their implementation until policy certainty improves. In the meantime, these announcements may support a company’s case when seeking an exemption by the Trump administration.
• Early investors and first movers in reshored manufacturing may benefit from favourable treatment and incentives under evolving industrial policies.
• Depressed valuations create attractive opportunities for long-term investors willing to accept more risks.
• Artificial intelligence will play a crucial role in reshaping manufacturing, finance and decision-making processes.

For governments:

• Addressing longstanding non-tariff barriers, including barriers like data sovereignty, will be critical for governments to level the playing field and offset protectionist costs.
• Countries facing US trade barriers can now reposition their relations as mutually beneficial.
• There’s an opportunity for multilateral reengagement as the Trump administration tries to renew leadership at the World Bank and IMF, refocusing them on core missions and reasserting US influence without “mission creep”.
• Regulatory simplification offers a major opportunity to stimulate growth and attract investment.
• Forming alliances with nations rich in critical resources such as minerals (e.g. Australia, Canada) will be key to strengthening supply chain resilience.
• Future administrations must carefully balance aggressive trade policies with establishing credible, stable frameworks to regain and retain international trust.

This roundtable was the latest in an international policy and thought leadership series produced in partnership by LSEG and Eurasia Group.