StarMine SmartEstimates

An overview of StarMine SmartEstimates

The StarMine SmartEstimates is a "smart" mean. Many investors use the simple average of analyst estimates, often referred to as the mean, to predict a stock's earnings or revenue. Unfortunately, the mean is flawed. It places equal weight on each analyst's estimate, regardless of whether the estimate was issued two or 200 days ago, or whether the analyst is more – or less – accurate in covering a stock.

StarMine goes further (1) by calculating how accurate an analyst is and how timely his or her estimates are, and (2) by putting more weight on the most timely estimates from the most accurate analysts. As a result, StarMine's SmartEstimates are more accurate than the mean.

StarMine's SmartEstimates also utilize the detection of a recent RevisionCluster when one has occurred. A RevisionCluster refers to a series of analyst estimate revisions within a relatively short period of time for a given fiscal period of a given stock.

Key Facts 

  • Geographical coverage
  • History
    From 1998
  • Data format
    User Interface
  • Delivery mechanism
  • Data frequency
    Realtime, Daily

Features & Benefits

What you get with StarMine SmartEstimates

  • When the SmartEstimate diverges from consensus/mean, it results in a Predicted Surprise. When the SmartEstimates diverges from consensus (Predicted Surprise) by 2% or more, SmartEstimates are directionally correct 70% of the time. Predicted Surprises help users better anticipate earnings beats and misses and are very useful in screening for new opportunities.
  • SmartEstimates put more weight on the more recent forecasts and the better analysts.
  • Removes stale estimates older than 4 months and those estimates not updated subsequent to significant news.
  • StarMine offers SmartEstimates for a number of financial measures besides earnings.
  • Starmine provides Analyst StarRating - Single Stock Estimate Score (SES) based on the quality of analyst recommendations with respect to an individual stock.
  • Starmine also flags an analyst estimates with a BOLD Flag. A Bold Estimate Flag on a stock is one that deviates significantly from the mean and the analyst is a 5-star rated analyst. Past records shows that a 5-star analyst has been significantly more accurate than other analysts.

How it works

Accessing the dataset

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